The Fed initially disappointed some investors on Thursday when it said it would buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month. That is far less than the $75 billion a month it bought in its second round of bond-buying, or the more than $100 billion monthly tab for its first round.
But this time, the Fed has promised that "if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially," it won't stop buying and could ramp up its spending further.
Depending how the Fed defines "substantially" and how long it takes to get there, it could end up buying bonds for several years, adding $1.7 trillion or more to its balance sheet, analysts say.
By comparison, the Fed's initial round of quantitative easing, first announced in November 2008 as the U.S. economy slumped into a deep recession, totaled $1.75 trillion .
"They've clearly committed to do what it takes to get unemployment down where they want it," said Pierre Ellis, an economist at New York-based Decision Economics. "There's no limit."
To Ellis, the "big bazooka" of open-ended bond purchases -- designed to boost the economy by lowering borrowing costs -- won't have much immediate impact because the economy's main headwind is uncertainty over fiscal policy and the outcome of a presidential election.
That's a view shared by several of the central bank's hawkish members.
But many other analysts say the Fed's latest program may exceed its predecessors in size, and more importantly, also pack the desired punch.
"We believe that with a strong commitment from the Fed, progress in Europe and the passing of the U.S. election, the U.S. economy will have a pretty decent shot at achieving above-trend growth in 2013," Julia Coronado, an economist at BNP Paribas, wrote in a note to investors.
Thursday's announcement could add another $1.2 trillion to $1.7 trillion to the Fed's balance sheet, she said.
TIED TO THE MAST
The Fed has kept short-term rates near zero since December 2008, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has led the U.S. central bank into ever-newer territory to lower real rates further.
After the first round of bond-buying in 2008 and 2009, the Fed resorted in 2010 and 2011 to a second round to ward off deflation as the recovery faltered.
As he doubles down on quantitative easing, Bernanke's approach looks flexible enough to win support from both ends of the Fed spectrum - the doves who want more easing to bring down unemployment, and the hawks who worry that more easing could overheat the economy and spark inflation.
"Everybody likes tying it to economic conditions," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Toronto-based Capital Economics. He estimates the program could eventually grow to between $960 billion to $1.44 trillion in size.
"The doves like this because they think the markets will think it's even bigger" than QE2, he said. At the same time, "it gives the hawks something, that if the economy picks up, they can get this stopped."
The Fed did not say how big it expects its latest program to be, but the clues are plain in its quarterly economic forecasts, also published Thursday.
Only three Fed policymakers expect the unemployment rate, now at 8.1 percent, to fall more than half a percentage point by the end of next year.
If the Fed sees 7 percent as substantial progress, the forecasts suggest continued bond buying through late 2014; if a bit lower, bond-buying could be needed through mid-2015, Ashworth said. Underscoring that interpretation, the Fed said Thursday it expects to keep rates low until at least then.
Before the crisis, unemployment was closer to 5 percent.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has spent the last year arguing strongly for the Fed to tie monetary policy more closely to economic milestones by vowing to keep rates low until unemployment fell below 7 percent.
Doing so, he says, would avoid the temptation of backing off from easing at the first signs of economic strengthening. In a series of speeches in recent months, he has likened a strong Fed commitment to low rates to a modern-day Ulysses tied to the mast of his ship, prevented from responding to the siren call of premature monetary tightening.
While the Fed did not embrace Evans' 7-percent unemployment rate target, it did adopt his view that the Fed should hold fast to easy policy even after the recovery picks up speed -- a historic shift in policy.
DON'T S 'TIL YOU GET ENOUGH
Any eventual ceiling on the size of QE3 looks sky-high. The Fed may only buy Treasuries and agency-backed debt, and some Fed officials say it has bought nearly as much of the U.S. national debt as it can without impairing the market's function.
But with mortgage-backed securities, there is plenty room to run: economists estimate the size of that market at more than $7 trillion, although the Fed would need to avoid disrupting the market's function.
Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays, sees QE3 topping out at $700 billion - slightly more than the second round of quantitative easing, but less than half the first.
The impact, he said, could be limited to boosting economic growth by a few tenths of a percentage point, although that could be enough to generate momentum.
"If you can keep the economy persistently above trend, then that has a self-reinforcing effect," he said.
Combined with the European Central Bank's vow to buy as many bonds as needed from euro zone states -- on condition they undertake reforms -- QE3 "has the potential to be very positive for the U.S. economy," Gapen said.
However, he said one real threat to the economy remains: a raft of tax increases and spending cuts that will automatically take effect at the end of the year unless Congress acts.
But if lawmakers successfully avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, the outcome for the economy could beat expectations and ultimately trim the size of QE3
相關(guān)中文資料
美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(FED,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))第三輪購債計(jì)劃的最終規(guī)�？赡芸氨鹊谝惠�.市場普遍認(rèn)為第一輪量化寬松(QE)提振了經(jīng)濟(jì)成長.
最新購債計(jì)劃的規(guī)模以及其體現(xiàn)出的政策根本轉(zhuǎn)變,將決定美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席貝南克離任後留下什麼遺產(chǎn).貝南克的任期在購債計(jì)劃未完成時(shí)可能就已結(jié)束了.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周四的決定最初讓部分投資者很失望.美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布每月購買400億美元的抵押支持證券(MBS),這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)少於QE2每月購買的750億美元,且更是少於QE1的每月逾1,000億美元.
但這次,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)承諾"如果就業(yè)市場前景沒有明顯改善",其將不會(huì)停止購債,且可能進(jìn)一步加大支出.
分析師稱,依據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)"明顯"的定義,以及達(dá)到此狀態(tài)需要的時(shí)間,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能需要數(shù)年後才會(huì)結(jié)束購債行動(dòng),同時(shí)其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)�？赡茉黾�1.7萬億美元或更多.
相較而言,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)第一輪量化寬松總規(guī)模為1.75萬億美元.美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2008年11月宣布這輪量化寬松,因當(dāng)時(shí)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入了深度衰退.
"他們(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))已很清楚的承諾,將盡其所能把失業(yè)率壓低到他們想要的水準(zhǔn),"紐約Decision Economics分析師埃利斯(Pierre Ellis)說,"而且沒有設(shè)定限制."
埃利斯認(rèn)為,此次不設(shè)限制的購債計(jì)劃將不會(huì)立即對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生很大的影響,因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)面臨的主要障礙是財(cái)政政策與總統(tǒng)大選結(jié)果的不確定性.購債計(jì)劃旨在通過降低借款成本來提振經(jīng)濟(jì).
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)數(shù)位持強(qiáng)硬立場的委員也是這個(gè)看法.
周五美國公債遭到全面拋售,10年期和30年期公債收益率升至5月以來水準(zhǔn),因新的刺激措施激發(fā)股市買盤,減少對(duì)債券的需求,同時(shí)也因?yàn)橥顿Y者擔(dān)心新刺激措施會(huì)引發(fā)通脹.
交易商說,市場對(duì)QE3中并未包括美國公債感到失望,這也造成了公債遭到拋售.
長期收益率的上升與購債計(jì)劃的目標(biāo)相悖,購債計(jì)劃目的之一就是為了降低長期借款成本.
貝南克周四試圖打壓有關(guān)他意在推高通脹的憂慮,通脹率現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)接近美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo)水平.他表示,量化寬松的目的是壓低失業(yè)率.目前失業(yè)率在為8.1%,許多分析師認(rèn)為這個(gè)數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)高於應(yīng)有水平.
但他承認(rèn),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)可能會(huì)容忍通脹率上升.
"如果像我們?cè)?月聲明中談到的那樣,通脹高於目標(biāo)水平,我們會(huì)采取均衡措施,"他在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)新聞發(fā)布會(huì)宣布新政策後表示."我們會(huì)令通脹逐漸降回目標(biāo)水平,但我們?cè)诓扇⌒袆?dòng)時(shí)會(huì)將我們兩個(gè)目標(biāo)水平的偏差納入考量."
許多分析師表示,美聯(lián)新方案規(guī)�？赡軙�(huì)超越此前,且更重要的是,能夠達(dá)到理想的效果.
"我們認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的強(qiáng)勢(shì)承諾、歐洲方面的進(jìn)展和美國大選過後,2013年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將得到強(qiáng)勁提振,成長很有機(jī)會(huì)高於趨勢(shì)水平,"法國巴黎銀行分析師Julia Coronado在給投資者的報(bào)告中表示.
她表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上周四的聲明可能令其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模再增加1.2-1.7萬億(兆)美元.
和經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)掛鉤
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)自2008年12月起即保持短期利率接近于零,現(xiàn)在貝南克帶領(lǐng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)走進(jìn)了更新的領(lǐng)域,以進(jìn)一步降低實(shí)質(zhì)利率.
貝南克加大對(duì)量化寬松的押注,似乎足以迎合美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)內(nèi)部的兩大陣營--溫和派主張以更多量化寬松來壓低失業(yè)率,但強(qiáng)硬派卻擔(dān)心更多量化寬松會(huì)讓經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱而引發(fā)通脹.
"每個(gè)人都喜歡把它和經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況連在一起,"Capital Economics首席美國經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師Paul Ashworth說.他預(yù)估QE3的規(guī)模最終將達(dá)到9,600億-1.44萬億美元.
"溫和派喜歡QE3,是因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為市場會(huì)以為QE3比QE2規(guī)模更大,"他說."同時(shí),強(qiáng)硬派的人則是認(rèn)為,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)升溫,他們可以停止QE3."
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)并未說最新計(jì)畫的規(guī)模會(huì)是多少,但從其周四公布的季度經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)估可窺見一二.
只有三名美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決策者認(rèn)為目前8.1%的失業(yè)率會(huì)在明年底之前減少超過半個(gè)百分點(diǎn).
Ashworth說,如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為失業(yè)率降到7%算是明顯改善,那麼上述預(yù)估即暗示購債計(jì)畫將持續(xù)至2014年底;如美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為失業(yè)率需降到比7%再低一些,則購債計(jì)畫可能需持續(xù)至2015年中期.美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周四稱,近零利率至少維持到2015年中.
目標(biāo)不至,努力不止
不論最終對(duì)第三輪量化寬松設(shè)定怎樣的規(guī)模上限,都會(huì)顯得極高.美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能只會(huì)買公債和機(jī)構(gòu)債,一些聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)在不影響市場運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的情況下盡可能買入公債.
而在抵押支持證券(MBS)方面,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)有足夠的施展空間:分析師預(yù)計(jì)MBS市場的規(guī)模超過7兆(萬億)美元,不過聯(lián)儲(chǔ)需要避免干擾市場的正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn).
巴克萊分析師Michael Gapen認(rèn)為,第三輪量化寬松規(guī)模將達(dá)到7,000億美元--稍高於第二輪量化寬松,但不到第一輪規(guī)模的一半.
Gapen稱,QE的效果或許僅限於將經(jīng)濟(jì)成長率提升零點(diǎn)幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn),但這已足以激發(fā)動(dòng)能.
"如果可以讓經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)高於趨勢(shì)水平,那麼就會(huì)獲得自動(dòng)加強(qiáng)的效果."他說.
再加上歐洲央行(ECB)承諾將視情況所需買入歐元區(qū)國家公債(條件是這些國家開展改革),Gapen認(rèn)為第三輪量化寬松"有望對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生非常積極的作用."
不過他也表示,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍面臨一個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)的威脅:假如國會(huì)不采取行動(dòng),一系列增稅和支出削減方案將在年底自動(dòng)生效.
但國會(huì)若能成功避免所謂的"財(cái)政懸崖",美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn)將超出預(yù)期,最終將令第三輪量化寬松規(guī)�？s減.
