The central bank needs to tread carefully amid signs that its earlier policy easing has fanned property price rises that have triggered public anxiety.
That's probably why the PBOC has so far defied expectations for more aggressive moves since its last interest rate cut in July. Instead, it is opting to use reverse repos to inject short-term money into the banking system.
Housing prices, rebounded on a monthly basis for the second straight months in July, following eight consecutive months of declines, while annual inflation accelerated to 2 percent in August from a 30-month low of 1.8 percent in July.
"The key dilemma for policymakers is that inflation looks like it will pick up earlier than expected, while a growth recovery coming later than expected," said Yiping Huang, chief economist for emerging Asia at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong.
"I think the central bank will probably do a little bit more (on easing), depending on how the economy is doing. Realistically, the economy is going to rebound but certainly not going to rebound significantly."
The PBOC may keep policy settings unchanged until the fourth quarter, when growth may stabilize or even recover due to the lagging impact of policy stimulus, according to government economist familiar with the policy-making process.
"We don't expect any major changes in macro-economic policy in the run up to the 18th Party Congress and the fundamental tone for monetary policy remains prudent," Wang Jun, senior economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), a Beijing-based think-tank, told Reuters.
"Policymakers have drawn a lesson from the past and don't want to stimulate economic growth aggressively," he said, referring to concerns that too much stimulus could re-ignite inflationary pressures.
The 18th Communist Party Congress, at which China's next top leaders are likely to be unveiled, is set for October.
Under the banner of policy 'fine-tuning", the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July and lowered banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) three times since late 2011, freeing an estimated 1.2 trillion yuan for boosting loans.
"The chances of policy easing are slim in the near term, but we cannot rule out a cut in RRR or interest rates," said You Hongye, an economist at China Essence Securities in Beijing.
中文翻譯：
不著急
分析師表示,只要就業(yè)市場保持穩(wěn)定,北京*就不會太擔心經(jīng)濟成長放緩.
四年前全球貿(mào)易接近停滯,數(shù)月內(nèi)近2,000萬中國人失業(yè),隨後中國推出大規(guī)模刺激計劃.
但這次就業(yè)市場更具韌性.分析師指出,服務(wù)業(yè)擴張,降低了經(jīng)濟成長對脆弱的出口行業(yè)的依賴,并創(chuàng)造了大量就業(yè).
雖然對人行采取行動的預(yù)期降溫,但投資者轉(zhuǎn)而關(guān)注中國可能出臺更多財政刺激措施.政府現(xiàn)已加緊準備財政刺激手段.
發(fā)改委上周宣布,已批準基建項目的規(guī)模超過1,500億美元.但分析師仍懷疑這不會給經(jīng)濟成長帶來任何立竿見影的效果,因為這些項目仍需要時間來籌集資金和開始建設(shè).
國務(wù)院總理溫家寶周二表示,政府到7月底收支相抵還有1萬億元余額,歷年結(jié)余的還有1千多億元穩(wěn)定調(diào)節(jié)基金.
溫家寶還表示,中國經(jīng)濟增速仍然保持在年初預(yù)定的7.5%目標區(qū)間之內(nèi).
他還表示,今年前七個月新創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位810萬個,較上年同期增加5%.這個數(shù)字是政府年初所設(shè)900萬目標的90%.
"當前他們真的不著急(放寬政策).他們時刻做好準備,如果情況惡化,他們會做出響應(yīng),"荷蘭國際集團亞洲研究主管Tim Condon說.
"經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)不是太好,但也沒有那麼差."
